Market Summary at 27th July 2012

Singapore shares closed slightly lower on Friday amid lower volumes as traders were unwilling to take fresh positions ahead of the weekend, while Wilmar International fell after being asked by the Chinese government to keep edible oil prices steady.

The 30-share Straits Times Index fell 0.2%, or 6.08 points, to close the day at 2,998.49 after touching an intraday high of 3,029.53. However, the benchmark fell below the psychologically important 3,000 mark in the latter half of the trading session.

The markets had started on a positive note, buoyed by a statement Thursday by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who said the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the common-currency union.

Shares of 184 companies gained while 171 ended lower on Friday. However, volumes were lower at 1.24 billion compared with 1.46 billion on Thursday and the benchmark finished the week with a 0.6% loss.

"It's a Friday...Things might happen over the weekend. Investors might not be willing to take positions at this point in time," said Lee Kok Joo, head of research at Phillip Securities. He added that the ECB's statement of support "might not be enough to bring cheer to the market over the weekend."

Singapore Airlines closed 0.7% lower at S$10.82 as some investors sought to cash in on the carrier's 2% gain on Thursday after it reported improved income in the April-to-June quarter.

Wilmar was the worst performer on the benchmark with a 4.4% loss to end the day at S$3.28. The company said that the Chinese government has advised edible-oil producers to avoid raising prices "unless absolutely necessary." The move possibly reflects that the government is worried about resurgent food prices despite inflation ebbing to its lowest level since January 2010, after a sharp weather-driven rally in U.S. grain prices late last week.

In contrast, other commodity firms were among the biggest gainers on Friday as investors hoped efforts in Europe to staunch the region's economic crisis would benefit suppliers. Olam International ended the day with the biggest gains among the 30-STI stocks. Its shares gained 2% to S$1.80. Noble Group was up 1% at S$1.045 while Golden Agri-Resources gained 0.7% to end at S$0.715.

Singapore's telecommunications companies, considered relatively safer bets in a volatile market, also gained. Singapore Telecommunications rose 1.2% to S$3.48 and smaller rival StarHub was 1.1% higher at S$3.68.


Just to share.


In my previous post, http://sharesdiscussion.blogspot.nl/2012/07/market-summary-13-july-2012.html i was saying the 3000 points will be penetrated and do not be excited if that happened. I think that situation still apply on current STI. Past week STI falls below 3000 points again; it will keep struggling at this level. 


If any negative news releases, it is advisable to sell off your short term scheduled stocks immediately and wait for bottom shopping. If STI unable to firm itself better at 3000 points, deep slump will definitely happen. Anyway STI remains uptrend now, the chance to go higher is increasing unless any shocking news being released at near term. 

Market Summary 21 July 2012

Singapore shares snapped a five-session rally to end lower Friday as uncertainties over the global economy and corporate earnings prompted investors to book profits ahead of the weekend.

The 30-share Straits Times Index fell 0.4%, or 13.43 points, to 3,015.53, reversing some of the index's 1.9% gain over the last five sessions. Despite the fall, the index still ended the week 0.7% higher.

"It's quite a bit of profit-taking," said Carey Wong, an analyst at OCBC. "We are approaching the weekend. Yesterday, we did hit the previous high--3,033--but the market wasn't very convinced. It didn't have the strength to sustain itself."

Noting that corporate earnings have so far been in line with expectations, Mr. Wong said "what potentially could happen is the market has not run too much ahead, but most of the positives may have been priced in. So for the market to continue to push ahead or stretch valuations may be a little bit tough."

Volume, while relatively sparse, inched higher to 1.27 billion shares from the 1.24 billion shares traded Thursday, while decliners outnumbered gainers 223 to 133.

Property-related stocks performed poorly, led lower by shopping mall developer CapitaMalls Asia's 2.2% decline to S$1.58. Real estate group CapitaLand fell 0.3% to S$2.95, while rival City Developments retreated 0.1% to S$11.89.

Other counters sensitive to economic cycles also slumped, including palm oil producer Golden Agri-Resources, which fell 1.3% to S$0.760. Rival Wilmar International eased 1.1% to S$3.58, while Olam International declined 0.8% to S$1.845.

Singapore Exchange was among just eight gainers on the benchmark index, rising 1.1% to S$6.75 after U.K. newspaper Daily Telegraph reported late Thursday that the bourse may be in talks with the London Stock Exchange on a potential merger. SGX denied the rumors in a statement issued late in Friday trading.

Just to share.

STI Dividends brings 2012 YTD total return to 15.02%

Over the first two weeks of July, the STI gained 4.07%. This brought the STI 2012 YTD price gain to 13.20%, placing Singapore at the top of the world’s major stock markets in terms of performance.

The total return of the STI in the 2012 YTD amounts to 15.02% with approximately 1.82% in dividend return added to the 13.20% price gain.

The 2012 YTD total returns of the 30 STI stocks have varied from -28.55% for Wilmar to +44.31% for CapitaMalls Asia.

For the 29 STI stocks that pay dividends, indicative yields vary from 0.70% for Jardine Strategic and City Developments to 5.59% for Starhub.

Over the first half of July, the Straits Times Index (STI) gained 4.07%.  This brought the 2012 year-to-date (YTD) price gain to 13.20%. The YTD return of 13.20% places Singapore at the top of the world’s major stock markets in terms of performance.  In SGD terms, the 2012 year-to-date gains of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Hang Seng Index are +2.03% and +1.19% respectively.

The 13.20% price gain of the STI is not inclusive of the dividends that have be paid on constituent stocks over the first six months. Each of the 30 constituents stocks are weighed in the index according to the size of the stock, that is its market capitalisation. Thus, with its 10% STI weighting, the dividend of SingTel will have more impact on the total return of the STI than the dividend of Starhub with its less than 1% STI weighting.

Taking the index weightings of the 30 STI stocks into consideration with the respective dividend distributions in 2012, the total return of the STI in the YTD amounts to 15.02%. That is, 13.20% in price return and 1.82% in dividend return.

The total return of the 30 constituent stocks, in addition to indicative dividend yields are detailed below. The indicated dividend yield, consists of the most recently announced dividend amount, annualised based on the payment frequency, then divided by the last price. In this case, the last price is the Friday close.

For instance in the case of CapitaMall Trust, the most recently announced divided of S$0.023 is then annualised to S$0.092 based on a quarterly distribution and divided by the Friday close at  S$1.945. This produces an indicative dividend yield of 4.73%.

Total Return of 30 Stocks that make up the Straits Times Index
STI Constituents SGX Code Price Change YTD (%) Indicative Total Return (%) YTD Dividend Yield (%) CapitaLand Ltd C31 34.47 2.03 37.33 CapitaMall Trust C38U 14.41 4.73 16.7 CapitaMalls Asia JS8 42.92 0.93 44.31 City Developments C09 28.27 0.7 29.28 ComfortDelgro Co C52 14.13 3.72 16.62 DBS Group Holdings D05 23.09 3.95 25.6 Fraser And Neave F99 25.65 2.31 29.06 Genting Singapore G13 -9.27 0.73 -8.73 Global Logistic Properties MC0 24.79 1.37 24.79 Golden Agri-Resources E5H 0.7 2.56 3.22 Hongkong Land USD H78 31.72 2.68 34 Jardine Cycle & Carriage C07 -3.37 3.3 -0.57 Jardine Matheson USD J36 12.14 2.37 14.08 Jardine Strategic USD J37 16.91 0.7 17.49 Keppel Corp Ltd BN4 16.45 3.97 19.17 Neptune Orient Lines N03 -1.78 0 -1.78 Noble Group Ltd N21 -2.21 1.88 -0.42 OCBC Bank O39 16.22 3.3 18.17 Olam International O32 -12.68 2.69 -12.68 Sembcorp Industries U96 32.61 2.8 36.45 Sembcorp Marine S51 33.75 2.21 35.17 SIA Engineering S59 21.87 5.02 21.87 Singapore Press Holdings T39 8.94 3.98 10.93 Singapore Tech Eng S63 23.69 2.16 25.32 Singapore Telecom Z74 12.3 4.55 12.3 Singapore Airlines C6L 4.33 1.89 4.33 Singapore Exchange S68 6.04 4.15 7.33 StarHub Ltd CC3 23.02 5.59 26.9 United Overseas Bank U11 26.98 3.09 29.77 Wilmar International F34 -29 1.72 -28.55
Source: Bloomberg, 13 July 2012

Total Return of 30 Stocks that make up the Straits Times Index

The performances of the 30 stocks of the STI have varied with four out of five STI stocks producing a YTD return by both measures of price gain and total return.  As detailed in the table, performances have varied from a total return of -28.55% for Wilmar to +44.31% for CapitaMalls Asia. For the 29 STI stocks that pay dividends, indicative yields vary from 0.7% for Genting to 5.6% for Starhub.

With reporting season to soon begin in earnest, investors are reminded that the weekly economic calendar provides dates of earnings reports and ex-dividend dates. Investors are reminded that buyers of the stock on the ex-date will not receive the most recently declared dividends. Subscription to the calendar is available here.

Dividends declared by Singapore Exchange (SGX) listed companies will be distributed either in cash or shares. For cash dividends, investors can opt for cheque payment or direct crediting services. The latter mode will provide the investor with the convenience of receiving Singapore-dollar dividends in the designated bank account directly on payment date. Investors can hence save the time and hassle of making a trip to the bank to deposit your cheques.

Source from SGX

Market Summary 13 July 2012

Singapore shares ended higher Friday as news that China's economy grew in line with expectations in the second quarter eased fears of a sharp slowdown in the world's second-largest economy.

China reported Friday that its economy expanded 7.6% on year in the previous three months, the lowest rate since the first quarter of 2009, but matching the median estimate of 15 economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires. "The day started out as a bad one for risk, with Italy downgraded by Moody's and Singapore's [gross domestic product] surprising to the downside," Deutsche Bank said in a note. But the China economic data "has helped the Asian equity markets to generally be in positive territory."

The 30-share Straits Times Index rose 0.8%, or 23.52 points, to 2,995.56, reversing from a 0.6% decline on Thursday. Intraday, the benchmark touched a high of 2,999.34, very close to piercing the psychological resistance level of 3,000. For the week, the index closed 0.6% higher.

Even so, "traders are still overwhelmingly favoring lower-risk assets with so much concern still circulating over the rate of global growth for the remainder of 2012," Tim Waterer, senior trader at CMC Markets, said in a note. In a sign of still-fragile sentiment, volume declined to 1.75 billion shares from 2.36 billion shares on Thursday. Gainers outnumbered decliners 225 to 133.

Food and beverage company Fraser & Neave rose 5.3% to S$7.79, buoyed by the Chinese data that may help ease concerns about sales.

Telecommunications firms were also among major gainers as their relative safety and higher yield potential prompted several analysts to make buy recommendations. Singapore Telecommunications gained 3% to S$3.47 while StarHub was up 2% at S$3.58.

City Developments added 2% to close at S$11.36, Global Logistic Properties gained 1.9% to close at S$2.19 while CapitaLand was up 1% at S$2.95, as investors interpreted GDP data may be less of a dampener on real estate sentiment.

Just to share.

STI so close to 3000 points! The overall sentiment is positive but investor cannot neglect the macro economic condition likes US and Europe economic data. My feeling is next week STI may protrude 3000 points with some excited investor bets their money on penny stocks. I have 70% confident this condition will happen, hence if STI penetrated 3000 points without any good basic; do not be excited.

Anyway, STI at uptrend now, what STI needs is good news from macroeconomic to firm up the 3000 points otherwise do not be excited for the penetration because its not going to stay long without any improvement from macroeconomic condition. Stay tune!

  

The worst is over?

HONG KONG : Despite recent signs of a slowdown in China, some economists believe that the worst is over for the world's number two economy.

According to economists at HSBC, fears of a hard landing for China have been overplayed.

Amid sluggish demand for exports from Western economies, growth in emerging markets such as China and Brazil lost steam in the second quarter of this year.

The HSBC Emerging Markets Index fell to 53 in the second quarter of 2012 from 53.6 the previous quarter.

But with a reading of 50 or above indicating economic expansion, HSBC is taking a positive look at the numbers.

Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian Economics Research at HSBC, said: "Is there something happening in Asia that all growth rates are coming down? And the answer is yes. Our growth rates are coming down, we are not going to go back to the previous growth rates. But we are also not going to go back to a Japanese or European-style growth rate, we are going to be at a fairly comfortable pace." 

All eyes are on China, with weaker trade data out this week raising fears about a prolonged economic slowdown.

But HSBC said the worst is over for the world's second largest economy.

It believes that China's economic growth bottomed out in the second quarter, with 7.8 per cent year-on-year growth.

And it expects to see a pick-up in the second half of the year, taking full-year growth to 8.4 per cent.

Mr Neumann said: "Domestic demand is still expanding. Car sales, for example, have picked up. There is evidence that real estate market activity has started to pick up again the last few weeks. 

"So we absolutely do not think there is a risk of a hard landing in China. And we do think the Chinese authorities will do everything in their power to maintain growth at a reasonable speed."

HSBC expects China's central bank to announce another 200 basis-point cut in the reserve requirement ratio for banks before the end of the year.

As for the region as a whole, the lender is forecasting a 6.8 per cent expansion for Asia-ex Japan this year, and 7.5 per cent growth in 2013.

HSBC said the days of double-digit growth for regional economies are over, at least for the next five years. 

But economists said that a slower pace of growth is a good thing, as it will mean less volatility, especially for financial markets.


Source fromhttp://www.channelnewsasia.com

STI has remain uptrend for two weeks due to several good news like Europe crisis easing and not too worst US economic data. Now the expert believes the worst is over for China. Can STI boosted above 3000 points and create another uptrend wave? Now i start to believe it will happen soon. The world economic is not doing well, hence i will treat this as a short term uptrend wave. This can be a good chance to let go your unpleasant portfolio and re-structure it. if it happened, do not greedy, earn less, let go and standby your cash for the forthcoming downtrend; shopping at lower price is the best, keep your eyes on blue chips!

Market Summary 7 July 2012

Singapore's shares logged their eighth straight session of gains Friday as some investors took monetary policy easing in Europe and China as a sign that governments stand prepared to take steps to boost economic growth.

The 30-share Straits Times Index gained 0.2%, or 7.08 points, to close at 2,978.55. The benchmark had started the day in the red and sentiment stayed depressed for most of the session as investors were worried that policy makers are growing increasingly gloomy about growth. However, sentiment picked up toward the end of the session as investors continued to see value in the nation's stocks. The benchmark finished the week with a 3.5% gain.

Volume was lightly higher Friday, at 1.50 billion shares compared with 1.46 billion Thursday. Gainers outnumbered losers 238 to 137.

The European Central Bank's move to lower borrowing costs was widely anticipated by the market, but China rate cut Thursday came as something of a surprise. The moves "have in essence given traders a greater puzzle to solve in regards to whether being long, short or sidelined is the smart choice," said Tim Waterer, senior trader at CMC Markets, in a note.

Global markets now await U.S. non-farm payrolls data set to be released later in the global day, with economists expecting a gain of as many as 100,000 new jobs in June. The crucial jobs report is likely to hold clues about the possibility of a third round of quantitative easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve. "If we do see a soft payrolls number, how much heart the market takes from an increased likelihood of QE3 will be critical," said Waterer.

Some real-estate firms continued their winning streak Friday as lower interest rates are likely to boost sales. CapitaLand gained 2.8% to close at S$2.98, making it the biggest gainer on the benchmark, while CapitaMalls Asia added 0.3% to close at S$1.625.

DBS Bank gained 0.6% to close at S$14.09 after the government announced a banking cooperation agreement with China. Under the agreement, China will expedite processing of applications made by Singapore banks to establish branches and sub-branches in the country, according to a Singapore government statement. Implementation details will be worked out by the relevant financial agencies in Singapore and China in due course, the statement said, without naming any banks.

Golden Agri-Resources gained 1.4% to close at S$0.720 but other commodity suppliers were lower after gaining in recent sessions. Noble Group closed 1.3% lower at S$1.135 while Wilmar International lost 0.5% to close at S$3.66.